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It is time to stay away from the stock market.  What will happen if US dollars depreciated dramatically?  Remember china and japan holding lots of T-bond , even our government reserve mostly are T Bond.  When us dollar/ bond crash, liquidity will dry up again and this time is much serious.  The whole world need to write down the loss.

Diversify your investment now

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本帖最後由 miracle 於 2009-9-15 21:52 編輯
It is time to stay away from the stock market.  What will happen if US dollars depreciated dramatically?  Remember china and japan holding lots of T-bond , even our government reserve mostly are T Bon ...
hksmallray 發表於 2009-9-14 23:11



Welcome to "investor diary" section.

How do you diversify your investment?

I just buy some paper gold from Bank. However, it is not good, as if the gold price up a lot suddenly. spread of ask/bid will be much wider as the bank hard to hedge for it at dangerous moment.

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The market is very complicated now.

Gold is a good hedge for sudden depreciation of us dollar and hyperinflation.  I have some.
If it is Deflation, we had better hold cash and rmb bond.

For insurance (which not related to stock investment) valued at us dollar value, you had better wait the US dollar index to rise while the stock market start to fall and borrow out the money to invest in rmb or rmb bond if you are afriad of the us dollar dramatically depreciation.

Intentionally holding down the interest rate involves high cost leading to hyperinflation/ crash of bond market.  We should keep a close look at the T-bill rates and bidding results.  If bond market crash, china, japan and hong kong will all suffer.  Its means your government lose a lot of money.  The ability for maintaining the currency stability will be questioned by the market.  We could expect the asia countries will union and negotiate a currency exchange rate but the banks and insurance companies will dry up their liquidity and capital.  All money gone.  The stock market will crash too no matter you are china, japan or hong kong and the gov is unable to help too before reaching a new currency exchange rate.  If this happen, the stock market won't dropping gradually.  We could expect sudden loss of above 50%.

US gov knows they have no way to get out of the heavy debt.  They will write off it by depreciation dramatically and it is not the first time they do this.  They don't afriad to depreciate it as every countries will eventually abide to them as they got the market and political power and strongest army.  Up to now, we don't have another market to replace US. They will choose the right time to announce this and don't let asset escape from it.
I am afriad they are intentionally to losen the money base and let US companies to invest in emerging countries make a bubble and then short it till they announce depreciation of dollar.  They will do it secretly and we outsider will never know what is going on.  The us government is not going to save the world economy.  They will exercise economic war to extract money from the world.

If you know the risk, you know you are playing music chair.

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本帖最後由 hksmallray 於 2009-9-15 21:55 編輯

佈雷頓森林貨幣體系形成,崩潰及美元本位制誕生



1944年7月,在美國新罕布什爾州的佈雷頓森林召開有44個國家參加的聯合國與聯盟國家國際貨幣金融會議,通過了以“懷特計畫”為基礎的“聯合國家貨幣金融會議的最後決議書”以及“國際貨幣基金組織協定”和“國際復興開發銀行協定”兩個附件,總稱為“佈雷頓森林協定”。

佈雷頓森林體系主要體現在兩個方面:第一,美元與黃金直接掛鉤。第二,其他會員國貨幣與美元掛鉤,即同美元保持固定匯率關係。佈雷頓森林體系實際上是一種國際金匯兌本位制,又稱美元—黃金本位制。它使美元在戰後國際貨幣體系中處於中心地位,美元成了黃金的“等價物”,各國貨幣只有通過美元才能同黃金發生關係。從此,美元就成了國際清算的支付手段和各國的主要儲備貨幣。

以美元為中心的佈雷頓森林體系的建立,使國際貨幣金融關係又有了統一的標準和基礎,結束了戰前貨幣金融領域裡的混亂局面,並在相對穩定的情況下擴大了世界貿易。美國通過贈與、信貸、購買外國商品和勞務等形式,向世界散發了大量美元,客觀上起到擴大世界購買力的作用。同時,固定匯率制在很大程度上消除了由於匯率波動而引起的動盪,在一定程度上穩定了主要國家的貨幣匯率,這有利於國際貿易的發展。
  
由於佈雷頓森林體系是以美元和黃金為基礎的金匯兌本位制。它必須具備兩個基本前提:一是美國國際收支能保持平衡;二是美國擁有絕對的黃金儲備優勢。但是進入60年代後,隨著資本主義體系危機的加深和政治經濟發展不平衡的加劇,各國經濟實力對比發生了變化,美國經濟實力相對減弱。1950年以後,除個別年度略有順差外,其餘各年度都是逆差,並且有逐年增加的趨勢。至1971年,僅上半年,逆差就高達83億美元。隨著國際收支逆差的逐步增加,美國的黃金儲備也日益減少。1949年,美國的黃金儲備為246億美元,占當時整個資本主義世界黃金儲備總額的73.4%,這是戰後的最高數字。此後,逐年減少,至1971年8月,尼克森宣佈“新經濟政策”時,美國的黃金儲備只剩下102億美元,而短期外債為520億美元,黃金儲備只相當於積欠外債的1/5。美元大量流出美國,導致“美元過剩”,1973年底,遊蕩在各國金融市場上的“歐洲美元”就達1000多億。由於佈雷頓森林體系前提的消失,也就暴露了其致命弱點,即“特裡芬難題”。體系本身發生了動搖,美元國際信用嚴重下降,各國爭先向美國擠兌黃金,而美國的黃金儲備已難於應付,這就導致了從1960年起,美元危機迭起,貨幣金融領域陷入日益混亂的局面。為此,美國於1971年宣佈實行“新經濟政策”,停止各國政府用美元向美國兌換黃金,這就使西方貨幣市場更加混亂。1973年美元危機中,美國再次宣佈美元貶值,導致各國相繼實行浮動匯率制代替固定匯率制。1973年美國放棄了金本位制度,美國宣布不再保證美元可以指定價格兌換黃金,布雷頓森林國際貨幣體系(Bretton woods international monetary system)正式解體,從此「美元本位制」成為國際通用的貨幣體系。由於美元本位制不用儲備作支持,所以只要有需要時,美國便可以開動印鈔機,無限制的增加美元的貨幣供應量。

原來的金本位制或其他需要儲備才可發行鈔票的貨幣制度則不同,若長時間出現貿易失衡,因黃金和儲備數量有限,便不能無限量的增加貨幣供應來為貿赤融資,而黃金和儲備也會流失,以至令國內利率上升,信用緊縮,直到經濟收縮及物價下降,最終貿易競爭力恢復(貿盈國家則相反,隨黃金及儲備流入,會推高通脹,令價格攀升而削減貿易競爭力),貿易失衡便可解決。




紙幣可無限供應



採用美元本位制後,美國可以無限量的增加貨幣來為貿赤融資,又或是無限量舉債,貿易失衡便沒有如金本位制的調節機能,卻令美元供應氾濫,各個貿盈國家滿手美元作為儲備,令本國貨幣面對升值壓力,為免本國貨幣升值影響經濟增長並同時要為這些儲備找出路,最後,貿盈國家只有購入美元金融資產如美國債券和股票等,最後令到美國得到融資,又可發行新債並增加消費,貿易不平衡令資源錯配,甚至造成美元資產泡沫。

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本帖最後由 hksmallray 於 2009-9-15 22:02 編輯

1985年9月22日,在美國紐約廣場飯店,美、日、英、法、西德5個工業發達國家財長和央行行長秘密會晤並簽署了著名的《廣場協議》,聯合干預外匯市場,使美元對日元、馬克等主要貨幣有秩序地下調,以解決美國巨額貿易赤字,從而導致日元大幅升值

「廣場協議」簽訂後,上述五國開始聯合干預外匯市場,在國際外匯市場大量拋售美元,繼而形成市場投資者的拋售狂潮,導致美元持續大幅度貶值。1985年9月,美元兌日元在1美元兌250日元上下波動,協議簽訂後不到3個月的時間里,美元迅速下跌到1美元兌200日元左右,跌幅20%。

作為1980年代的資本主義世界第二大經濟體和世界第二大經濟強國(八十年代末期時超過了蘇聯),日本親眼目睹其經濟結束經濟起飛後快速竄升的勢頭,逐漸演變為緩慢增長、停止增長乃至嚴重衰退,到了1990年代中期又經歷貨幣快速貶值(時稱「拋售日本」),從此一蹶不振,泡沫經濟破裂、崩盤,十餘年未恢復元氣。

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The market is very complicated now.

Gold is a good hedge for sudden depreciation of us dollar and hyperinflation.  I have some.
If it is Deflation, we had better hold cash and rmb bond.

For insuranc ...
hksmallray 發表於 2009-9-15 21:46

其實我想講我買左paper gold, 而非實金...

實金會較好, 雖則paper gold 差價細, 但如果一有事起上來, 可能差價會整得好闊...

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所以中國,巴西,俄羅斯等國家都要求imf...超主權貨幣


《中國要聞》外交部:中國無意拋棄美元,超主權貨幣學術層面探討
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/090609/9/clwl.html

中國暫時唔敢講, 應該系驚野起太大衝擊,

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China to diversify out of U.S. dollars
Posted by Edward Harrison on 6 September 2009 at 5:43 pm   
6
Sep

According to an account published in the Daily Telegraph by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the Chinese government is quite anxious about money printing in the United States and the effect this printing could have on China’s dollar denominated reserve assets.

For months now, the Chinese have signalled growing unease with U.S. monetary policy. And now comes the clearest signal yet that they are moving away from the dollar.  Cheng Siwei, a former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee, said point blank that the Chinese central bank was about to actively diversify new reserve assets away from the U.S. dollar and into currencies like the Yen and the Euro.  He also mentioned Gold as an alternative the Chinese are exploring.

The $2 trillion in U.S. dollar reserves the Chinese already have are a sunk cost.  Going forward, the Chinese are free to do as they wish with incremental additions to reserves. To the degree that they sell dollars and buy gold, Yen or Euros, there can only be downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

    Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China’s green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed’s recourse to “credit easing”.

    “We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again,” he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

    “If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies,” he said.

    China’s reserves are more than – $2 trillion, the world’s largest.

    “Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets,” he added.

    The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction.

    Mr Cheng said the Fed’s loose monetary policy was stoking an unstable asset boom in China. “If we raise interest rates, we will be flooded with hot money. We have to wait for them. If they raise, we raise.

    “Credit in China is too loose. We have a bubble in the housing market and in stocks so we have to be very careful, because this could fall down.”

    Mr Cheng said China had learned from the West that it is a mistake for central banks to target retail price inflation and take their eye off assets.

    “This is where Greenspan went wrong from 2000 to 2004,” he said. “He thought everything was alright because inflation was low, but assets absorbed the liquidity.”

Notice the statements about an asset bubble in China and the admission that loose U.S. monetary policy is a transmission mechanism.  Cheng is right to worry about asset prices in addition to consumer prices as the Chinese economy has a huge amount of overcapacity right now and any inflation is bound to become apparent in asset prices first.

To be sure, there are other voices in Chinese officialdom that are striking a less alarmist tone. One cannot rely on the words of one Chinese official to represent policy makers in China.  And Cheng never said the Chinese are now actively diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, Chinese officials have been talking along this dollar bearish line for months now and I tend to believe their words will lead to action.

That is, at a minimum, bullish for Gold and bearish for the U.S. Dollar.

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